tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg April 3, 2019 11:00pm-12:00am EDT
this is bloomberg markets. juliette: a little more mixed in asian markets after we hit that six-month high yesterday. a little weakness coming through in australia, coming off the postelection rally yesterday. further weakness in new zealand stocks today. e.m.'s looking solid. indonesia up one third of 1% and out of hong kong, stocks you can see the currency market is mixed although we have seen a pickup in sovereign yields, particularly in new zealand and australia. you can see solid movement in yields and also on the 30-year note in japan, up 1.8 basis points. we are awaiting the r.b.i. decision.
what you are seeing in the one-year interest rate tumbling to the lowest level in more than two years suggests we could see back-to-back cuts coming for from the r.b.i.. you've currently got the repo level but2 -- 6.25% perhaps it could be 5.75 percent by year-end. rishaad: let's look at the prospects in light of that view as to what we got in terms of the open. lookn futures, it does like we will see negativity at the start of the trading day. at least we were. it has turned positive in a short time. it was down. r.b.i. will cut the key rate by 25 basis points, stick to a neutral start. aprille cut at this meeting and shift its accommodation. suggesting we could see another .25% cut in rates in june or
august. expecting inflation to stay below the 4% target in the year ahead and for growth to remain below potential. there is one central bank. what about the bank of thailand? later, our exclusive interview with gentlemen. the outlook for rates and risks of financial instability. let's get the first word news now with paul allen. the trump administration officials are examining options for closing part or all of the mexican border in case the president goes ahead with his threat. preparations are said to be between theoretical discussion with potential moves and actual implementation planning. officials are looking how to prevent wide spread disruption to the economy if the president decides to seal off the border. the boj is likely to make its
most conservative inflation outlook under governor kuroda's leadership. prediction of the bank's former chief economist. he told us the boj will set its forecast below 1.8% and release its outlook for the fiscal year in a quarterly report on april 25. he says anything higher than that is too ambitious. i think it is impossible to forecast the inflation target around 2%. they can only keep the direction of positive price momentum and that is probably it. release aopia will preliminary report later thursday into last month's 737 max 8 that killed 157 people. initial findings may indicate whether a computerized anti-stall system forces the plane into a dive may have played a role. the sync system had activated on the doomed lion air flight in indonesia five months earlier. boeing says it told airliners
how to disarm the system following the disaster. boeing is delaying test flights to send astronauts into plain -- space from nasa, including a launch. it is targeting august for an unmanned test flight in which its star liner capsule will run in conjunction with lockheed martin. boeing is looking at a manned launch toward the end of the year six months later than scheduled. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. china and the u.s. her agent worth a deal and "making good headway," according to larry kudlow. the two sides hope to get closer andn agreement this week president trump is to meet the lead negotiator from china later. let's see where things stand
with our executive china editor. what is happening? >> the latest we get seems to be more signs of a deal taking shape. we hear from people involved in the negotiations that there is discussion by both sides about making 2025 deadline for china to realize some of the commitments it will make as part of the new deal. is going on in washington today and tomorrow, and lots of signs things are taking shape. what are the sticking points? stillp discussing the ip being negotiated and verification is the other one. what are you hearing? john: both of those things. the other thing i think that has been a stumbling block is when and if the u.s. takes away these 10% tariffs it put in last year. will want the chinese the u.s. to take those away as part of any deal.
the u.s. wants to keep them around as a way to make sure china does what it pledges. rishaad: all right, thank you for that. john liu, bloomberg executive editor for china. let's get more on all of this. our next guest, looking at trade talks positively. good to see you. we are looking at this positively. that from the rally in chinese equities in particular, but how much is priced in? the kind of momentum you have seen in the trade talks, that is possibly priced in. what is not fully priced in is a degree of civilization in china 's macroeconomy. we have seen fiscal and monetary stimulus for a while. it has almost been a year and the main impact has been a
stabilization in domestic consumption. a bit of resonance in some areas. household appliances, for example, and we are seeing a similar degree of momentum in some areas. while the market remains focused on chinese macro economic slowdown. there are certain pockets, certain silver linings emerging. we think there are quite a few that investors can play at this time. rishaad: can you be more specific? manishi: i would say domestic consumption. rishaad: it looks very crowded with the number of people getting in. manishi: to an extent, yes. you could play domestic consumption like telecoms, chinese companies that were getting government intervention last year. many have been withdrawn.
quite a few high dividend yield stocks and companies that increased their dividend payment. that is something investors would have to be focused on and i would mention property sector. policies for the -- stabilizing property prices, many could actually be withdrawn in the second half of the year. , in terms ofishi the overall rally we have seen on the benchmark, the csi 300, it has been going in straight -- incredibly strongly. i've got a chart on my terminal showing they see a further 25% rise in this index over the next 12 months. are you as bullish is that? how do we get to those kind of levels? have a: well, we don't
target on the csi. we do have a target on the shanghai composite as 3.5. 12% higher from here. we think the main drivers of that upside would possibly come from the consumers, particularly consumer discretionary's which would include education related stocks, tourism related stocks. the chinese internet companies fit into that and also some of the insurance companies which have done well but we think there could be further momentum there because of the better performance on investment yields we are seeing. is really the universe apart from the property companies that i mentioned just now. we must not forget that many of these companies in the property are trading at very high dividend yields right now. in some cases, you would even
find dividend yields as high as nine to 10%. we think the upside is still there on the whether it is 15%, 20% or 14% is debatable. roomitely there is still for investors to make money over there. juliette: manishi, stays with us. manishi raychaudhuri from bnp paribas. we will ask why he has changed his calls on indian stocks as within mumbai remains within touching distance of record highs. the r.b.i. almost certain to cut its key rate today. we will ask about the chances of another cut in june. this is bloomberg. ♪
expectations for a second rate cut this year have already -- lift thethe equity market to an all-time high. the rally has been fueled by foreign investors. domestic institutions have been selling shares, pulling about $2 billion from equities in march, the biggest withdrawal in three years. let's bring back manishi raychaudhuri, head of equity research from bnp paribas in our hong kong studios. you are overweight indian stocks. this impressive rally we have seen on the sensex you think will continue. is this across every sector? manishi: for the time, it is likely continue for a couple reasons. we are seeing a secular declining cost of capital. that will likely increase the gap even further. second, private sector capex, which had been hoped for last three to four years now seems on the cusp of commencing because capacity utilization levels are
70% to 80% when companies bring back decisions on the drawing board. degree ofare seeing a earnings stability in certain sectors like financials where we are clearly behind the worst of the banks, quality problems are behind us. that is why these fundamental factors are contributing to this rally. at the same time, we are seeing bullishness on the part of -- as governmentme continuing post-elections, even though that has been historically impossible to predict. juliette: there's a lot for investors to focus on but as we talked about, there is a lot of domestic money coming out and it is being driven by inflows. do you think this continues if we can see a dovish stance from the fed? manishi: for the time being, yes. the rate cut is almost in the bag.
outcomes have consistently been surprising where the bank of india forecasts on the downside. there could be a second rate cut . it could be in the second half of the year. one thing is clear, the cost of capital is likely to come down further. if you look at the real interest rates in india, they are possibly one of the highest and in particular when you compare them against other countries. there is a lot of room to reduce cost of capital. it is about the rate decision today. 25 basis point cut is pretty much a shoo-in. how well the language evolve because it looks as if growth will not be quite up to potential? you see inflation looking benign and below the 4% target for the ibi -- r.b.i.. does this set up a series of
rate cuts this year? manishi: a series may be an overstatement, but a couple of rate cuts, including the one today, could be on the cards. what we would really look forward to is the language that the bank uses in the statement. whether there is a shift from the accommodative stance. they had talked about the neutral stance. that remains during today's policy, i think the market would take it enthusiastically. are interestuseful rate cuts, ultimately, in an economy like india's? is it more useful in looking after the rupee and defending the rupee than anything else? manishi: the rupee concern is behind us. i don't think they would be concerned about it unless we felt a real spike in oil prices. today, the indian rupee at 68 to
any kind of face pressure like we had during september through november of last year. i think today, the rupee is being supported by this massive gush of foreign inflows we have seen. that situation is likely to continue. rishaad: political? did get af you different government and competitive populism, you could see pressure on the rupee but that is not the base case as of now. juliette: manishi, i want to change tack and ask, why have you gone underway on south korean stocks? manishi: south korea clearly looks like a cheap market, but are seeing time, we economic growth and earnings
growth expectations rapidly coming down and they are surprising us on the downside. the have been overweight south korea the past few months. late february. but as exports become under pressure, that is a thing of the past. ishink the biggest pressure coming on the south korean banks because of the domestic economic slowing down and that has been the biggest change. the bulk of the south korean financials exposure we had in the model portfolio. manishi: great to see you. manishi raychaudhuri, head of equity research and bnp paribas. theresa may, suffering another heavy brexit defeat but a bill to block no deal squeaks through by one vote. the latest on the political gridlock in the united kingdom next. ♪
>> we are back with bloomberg markets. in hong kong, i rishaad salamat. >> i'm juliette saly in singapore. u.k. parliament voted by the narrowest hospital -- possible margin to block a no deal exit. >> no deal has been taken off the table. if you are a no deal brexiteer, your strategies to stop everything else from going through. the eus nothing to go to and say here is our solution. therefore, let's go to no deal. even if the candace kicked down
the road, the next issue is does theresa may survive? is there a no-confidence vote? cable is slightly higher but not surging higher. as to what goes on with sterling here, it has been unloved, or is it just brexit fatigue? sachs'one of goldman look at this and this is what he was talking about. >> you think we are angling toward a softer brexit package, probably a permit customs union, possibly packaged with a second referendum and we think that will be coming together in the next one to two days. we are coming to a big finish here but i wouldn't say it is not tradable. we think this is an important market opportunity. rishaad: looking at it, they are on an absolute
terror with regard to this but it is largely untreated. the timing of that was inconvenient for every single fx center. what are you hearing? >> same thing. it is a hard trade. if you look at the outflows since the beginning of march, the highest more than 130 .81. are trying to instigate a trade, where do i get in and where do i get out? how do i not get stopped out? that is the case. is it worth it, given all these uncertainties and how it may play out? half the time, it is not worth it. if you look at leveraged funds, it is just 7000 contracts at the moment compared to the all-time high of 125,000 contracts. in the short-term -- even short-term funds are like, there hing there, let's avoid
for the moment. rishaad: thank you. let's have a look at what is going on in the lng business, the oil business, top executives in shanghai for a major conference when the industry is meeting a potential supply shortage. biggestof australia's natural gas producer spoke to us exclusively. >> it is an interesting situation at the moment. today, we are in oversupply and we always knew we would be. you've got an oversupply with projects coming online. we got su she large projects in the u.s. this year. the market is pretty flush with lng at the moment, juxtaposed on a warmer northern winter this year. you are seeing prices get down into the mid-four dollars.
tighter.will get once we get to the back end of this year, there is no new fresh supply coming into the marketplace. you are seeing demand continue to grow. a lot of questions about where china plays into all of this. we were talking about how pmi numbers are looking more positive out of china. what are your expectations for gas demand? how does that fit into your outlook for lng prices? i think the blue sky policy
can pretty much bank on where current demand is. the question is where the forecast will go to and if there is exponential growth in the future. i think it is. if you look at the number of places the blue sky policy is in place, it is a small footprint in china. china from a domestic gas point of view has a limited network compared to larger countries. there is real potential and that is just in the traditional use of gas. if we start to go to nontraditional usage around transportation, road transportation and china is leading this already, and into shipping, the growth can get even more. we are very positive about china. i think the key is there is a lot of reform going on in the marketplace as the government up third-party access, get gas broken down into smaller parts so people can try it. i think it is positive market outlook. david: i want to ask about canada. obviously know. about 80%.plied this comes on the back of some rivals last year. that you mayopeful
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juliette: it is almost 11:30 a.m. in singapore. pretty flat on the index after five sessions of gains. very weak sentiment coming through singapore. it is down in almost eight months after a flurry of analyst downgrades in a plan to raise gambling texas and concerns of and concerns on the casino resort. let's get to first word headlines with paul allen. paul: president trump will meet china's vice premier in signs that are edging toward a deal.
an economic adviser larry kudlow says talks are making headway. outstanding issues include protection for american intellectual property and an enforcement mechanism to ensure china honors the commitments. the bank of japan has some rare good news with demand exceeding supply in the fourth quarter by the most in 26 years. governor kuroda has repeatedly pointed to the output has the confidence measured that the bank will achieve its 2% inflation target. asever cpid slid -- cpi slid exports and growth weakened. carlos ghosn dismissed his arrest as "outrageous and arbitrary." prosecutors detained ghosn on thursday. he has been arrested in alleged breach of trust in pain funds for personal purposes. ghosn says he is confident if he is tried fairly, he will be
vindicated. >> i daresay this is a show of japan's hostage justice by hurting mr. ghosn to give more advantages to the prosecutor's side. i find it quite an inappropriate measure. paul: global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. juliette: bank of india is expected to cut rates again at its meeting later, as growth slows at home and abroad and inflation becomes less of an issue. annabelle joins us from mumbai. it is confusing what we are hearing from some signs. do you expect we will see back-to-back rate cuts from the r.b.i.? of aere are expectations 50 basis point rate cut, given
that the rbi could frontload the rate cuts. the monetary policy transmission has been very tardy. apart from that, investments are cooling and consumption has taken a hit because of the shadow bank crisis. add to that inflation has been well-behaved, staying well below the target of the r.b.i.. the conditions are there for a rate cut, but as they go for -- but whether they go for a 30 or 50 basis point rate cut is up in the air. one,can go to a neutral which means there will be more rate cuts in store in the coming months. rishaad: this is it, isn't it? we have a situation where growth is not up to potential, the targeting of inflation there. is there anything materially we
should be looking at from the language that the rbi has today? anirban: that's right -- the language could be very dovish. what is happening is that the growth expected to happen in the january to march quarter the r.b.i. was expecting at 7% has not happened. dealt ations have been lot of instability to investments. we are very much reliance on monsoons. the indications are it may not be a normal monsoon after that, the global slowdown. all of the risk factors are looming on the horizon. we could see the rbi a bit more dovish in the language, because the governor wants to have the growth equation into the rbi
lexicon as much as it is inflation targeting central bank. rishaad: our next guest has been investing in india for over 20 years and is moderately underweight on stocks there. let's get over to london. the time there is 4:33 in the morning. thank you for being up with us so early. tell us about how this rate decision today impacts what you are seeing on the markets. also, put it into the context of this amazing run we have seen since the beginning, i believe, of march. >> sure. i feel there is a 25 basis cut point largely discounted. i don't think there should be a 50 basis point rate cut primarily because core is inflation is running at 5.5, and it is a tricky situation going into the monsoon season. if anything bad happens with the
monsoon, you will see core inflation rise further, and the cpi number which carries food and fuel will rise as well. it is a growth aspect that the r.b.i. wants versus controlling of inflation. i think they should pay attention to the fact that the core inflation is running at 5.5%. sorry, what was the second part of your question? rishaad: no, the second part of my question essentially was how it relates to the markets themselves and the stock situation. terms ofntially, in the valuation metrics and how the emerging markets close have been since of the beginning of the year pretty strong. my concern with the rally in india is that it has been concentrated largely with caps, while there has been a bounce , butin small and mid caps
it has not been a broad-based rally. we have to watch in india. the valuations are three times the book, hence we have a slightly underweight position going into the elections. rishaad: i want to couple something you said. you said the interest rate decision comes to the monsoon season, so 50 basis points would be a mistake. i put it to you even if we have a bad monsoon, no amount of monetary policy can contain those price rises, if it ha ppens. vik: the concern is a bad monsoon will mean food inflation when oil is already rising. brent is at $69. wti around $62. anytime brent start reaches $75 plus, it becomes a concern for cpi in india, which has been subdued no doubt, but is it
temporary? i say it is a mistake not to watch food inflation based upon the monsoon, and oil prices before taking an aggressive rate cut. juliette: amongst all of those factors that the r.b.i. will be watching, they will be watching what is happening in terms of stress that. i have a chart on my terminal showing india's nonperforming loans far outstripping china's. we have the handing down of tightening rules about delinquent accounts. what kind of language do you think we will hear from the r.b.i. today in terms of what is happening with that stress debt situation? vik: the estimates are between 150 billion to over 200 billion in terms of the debt situation. i think you are referring to the february 12 circlet of r.b.i., which allowed lenders to take
clt if there was no settlement reached. the supreme court overruled that decision, which basically gives the borrowers a little bit more time and probably a little bit more leverage in terms of negotiation. ultimately i think the more important thing, the objective, r.b.i. should not forget the objective of what this exercise is -- that is for the assets in play to reach productive hands and to get restarted. that is what i think the r.b.i. should be focusing on. i expect the r.b.i. in light of the supreme court decision to give new direction relatively soon clarifying their last february 12 ruling. juliette: it is also an election year. there is some speculation that is why you have seen an interest
in the equity market, particularly from foreign investors. you have said the circus has begun somewhat. vik: for sure, the circus has begun. if yous of -- last year, look at fbi inflows, they were negative. foreigners took money. the market was largely supported by domestic institutions. in terms of this year, the rally in broadly emerging markets started late december and early january. for the first quarter, the emerging-market currencies have benefited. that has helped india. my concern is -- if you take out the top 10 or nine stocks out of the nifty and it is hardly anything. it will create volatility. there are opportunities, having said india is overpriced at three times booked, i think this
volatility that is going to come because of this election year and the next two months will create tremendous opportunities. dry and takeder advantage of any volatility that comes. rishaad: vik, tell me about your favorite industry group. you say banking international services cheap, and the wind is behind them. they were oversold for a reason, are they not? vik: absolutely. you are referring to the crisis that happened in the housing finance sector. i am bullish on the interest sensitive rate stocks thus far. by that, i mean r.b.i. is obviously cutting rates. they were oversold, particularly some of the public sector banks were thrown out as well. the baby was thrown out with the bathwater. if you look at historical measures, they look relatively
cheap. you have to be patient with these stocks. these are for the long haul. there is definite value in interest sensitive stocks. rishaad: there is another issue as well. take the example of jet airways struggling along. it has almost been propped up. the modi government would not like to see a business like that collapse. could we see another series of companies piling on stress debt, after the election is done with, defaulted and going into receivership, and that could be a problem into the latter half of this year? vik: yes, i agree with you. jet airways with this supreme court really, their process meggitt delayed. getuling, their process may delayed.
i think there is absolute possibilities there may be other companies that come out after the election and announce they are having problems at even meeting interest rate units. -- rate payments. cio of: vik mehrotra, venus capital management joining us. we join the bank of thailand's governor as he talks about how he plans to tackle the country's financial frailties. this is bloomberg. ♪
things suggesting we could see an upside by the r.b.i. decision today. a weakness coming through in the dollar.eek against the also trying to watch the language coming through from the new governor as well in terms of what we can expect from the r.b.i.. india's markets have opened. let's get over to mumbai. a little bit of selling coming through in late trade in india yesterday. how are things looking ahead of the r.b.i. decision? >> very quiet so far as far as the opening is concerned, because the benchmarks are flat. trending largely where we left off yesterday. that is as far as the open is concerned. the broader markets not doing much. been someever
amount of strength in the indian rupee against the u.s. dollar. all eyes will remain on what the r.b.i. gives us today with respect to interest rates and the kind of impact it will have on interest rate sensitive sectors. juliette: what sort of impact do you think we could be seeing? how are those interest rate sensitive stocks and sectors doing in early trade? autor now, as far as the and realty index is concerned, they are factoring in what i could call dovishness. the banking index is largely flat. the auto index certainly expecting a little bit of rest bite after week -- of respite after what we have seen over three months in terms of volumes. once again, we will have to wait in terms of what we get from the
reserve bank of india and the impact it could have on some of these sectors. rishaad: thank you very much for that. declines for jet airways, stocks t 2% down. this company looks to the of on the abyss, teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. they used to operate a peak of 119 aircraft. the chronicle is claiming the carrier will delay march salary payments to employees, engineers and the like. atis all still going on jet airways. watch this space as the company bids to ensure its survival. let's get away from india. the central bank governor of thailand the focus as well, saying there is still financial weakness in his economy.
he says these weaknesses are tackled through measures including macro prudential steps in monetary policy. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg earlier at a bankers meeting taking place. >> a major factor in my view that has contributed to the devaluation of economic growth is related to the trade attention that has been going on -- tension that has been going on for quite some time. hopefully the agreement being negotiated now with the u.s. and china will be able to materialize soon. if that happens, we could see more picking up of activities, particularly on the trade side in the second half of the year. >> how big is the risk? the wto says it has already cut the trade projection. veerathal: as we have seen, export numbers in the past few
-- exportinitely growth globally, it is an international threat. it is not as robust as last year in terms of growth. in terms of trade attention, we have the frontloading towards the end of last year. everyone was expecting major in the would be imposed first half of this year. everyone has frontloaded their orders. we have a double impact. it is the impact of the inventory that has been zeroed out and vacillations of economic activity. yournda: do you expect projection of growth to be impacted? thailand is also possibly being impacted by brexit. veerathal: we recently revised is gdp growth, and that
mainly because of the outlook on exports. haslinda: are you likely to cut projection? is there a risk of that happening? veerathal: there is a downside. we have incorporated a certain amount of downside risk into our projections. we do a forecast on a quarterly basis. rates foryou raised the first time since december 2011. how much room do you have to raise rates further? veerathal: monetary policy is data dependent, so we evaluate. datanda: what is the showing you right now? veerathal: we have an expectation targeting framework. first we look at the inflationary developments. for now, we think inflation is in our target range, although it is on the lower end. haslinda: is there a risk of inflation rising for the rest of
the year? veerathal: it depends on two factors, one is energy prices. the other is food prices. we have seen picking up of food prices lately, possibly related to the drought. haslinda: we have a very strong baht, up 2% versus usd year to date. is that limiting you raising rates, given higher rates could in fact boost the baht? veerathal: we do take into consideration the movement of the baht. lately i think the baht has been moving in line with the fundamentals of economics. last year we had current accounts processing in the range gdp becauseof exports have been coming down. currency has moved in line with the indonesian realty
lately -- rupee lately. since we increased policy rates in december, we have upset outflows of short-term debt. foreigners have short-term debt and tight equity. we have some inflows in debt. the net portfolio inflows continues to the in the negative territory. haslinda: you are control with the baht at this level. veerathal: we look at the volatility. we look at where the baht it moving in line with our regional currencies. juliette: that was the that thai central bank governor speaking exclusively to bloomberg in a finance meeting in thailand. we have been speaking to the head of bank indonesia. they say they are holding up their policy rate quite well,
saying rates are on hold amidst global risks. they are seeing u.s. development as a factor in driving emerging markets. bankand asian saying -- indonesia seeing higher growth on structural reforms, reiterating they are keeping interest rates unchanged given global uncertainties, that according to the governor of bank indonesia. rishaad: we have been hearing more from that interview we conducted with him. that is a bit later on. also talking to the philippine finance secretary on the sidelines of the beatings taking place in the -- the meetings taking place in the thai city. this is bloomberg. ♪
they will cut travel time between the cities. it will cut the time for three minutes. the cause, $133 per person. -- cost, $133 per person. >> as a result of lower sales, product is reducing prices -- prada is reducing prices at all stores and outlets after they lowered to 13 this month. they also cut prices saying they fully support the cap between prices in china and overseas markets. the reserve bank of india makes the right decision. economists are expecting 26 basis points to 6%. they deliver show
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